One great thing about the game of poker is that it can teach you a lot about life. In fact, early on in my poker career I realized just how powerful applying poker concepts to life can be. Once I developed a deep understanding of the game of poker, a lot of other things in life started to make much more sense. Understanding how various markets and economies function became much more understandable to me, as did a number of other things that had previously confused me. Using the same formulas I use to determine whether or not a particular decision at the poker tables was +EV, and applying those formulas to life decisions worked out really well for me.
Before I became a poker player, if I had a tough life decision I would generally consult a friend or family member who I felt would be a good person to ask for help. I often simply trusted their judgement. If I still wasn’t sure, I would usually play it safe or occasionally stubbornly just do whatever I felt like doing at the time.
And that’s not to say that I have completely abandoned the idea of asking for a trusted friend’s opinion, but I have found that using poker EV equations for life decisions works pretty darn well and as a result, I probably bug my friends with my problems a lot less than I used to!
Now, that is not to say that using poker logic for life is fool proof. In fact today I used my poker brain for a life decision and it cost me about $300! One of the greatest human behavior anomalies I have ever witnessed resulted in me being cited today for speeding. I was driving down a highway that is practically in the middle of nowhere while heading out to the golf course today. My car is a pretty cool Lexus LS460 that you can drive 100MPH in, yet feel like you aren’t going more than 45 MPH. Unfortunately for no reason that makes sense to anyone, the speed limit is 50 MPH on that particular highway. It is pretty common for people to speed on this road and the cops know that. They have their hiding places that I am well aware of at this point where they are sitting pointing their radar gun at your direction, hoping to catch someone speeding. Since I am very aware of this situation, I am always very careful not to speed around their hiding places. In fact, I have only been pulled over once on the way to the course in 5 years of driving there. That might not sound like much of an accomplishment, but it is pretty good for me. I am a chronic speeder.
About 3 miles from my exit, I was approaching the last hiding spot that I know the cops often hide. Fortunately for me, there were about 10 cars 1/4 mile ahead of me. All of those cars were driving between 60 and 70 MPH. I closely watched the cars ahead of me and not a single one even tapped on their brakes. Feeling confident that at least one car would have braked if the cop had been hiding there shooting his radar gun at the cars, I used my poker brain and decided that logically at least a few (if not all) of the 10 cars ahead of me would surely hit their brakes if a cop was hiding in his typical spot. I assumed that the possibility that the cop was there was as close to zero as possible with this information. How did I know this? Let’s say on average a person is 50% likely (the number may be higher or lower, but we can work off of this number for now) to at least tap their brakes when passing a cop who has his radar gun out. Let’s assume that all 10 cars ahead of me have an equal chance to alert me by braking. Using these assumptions, the odds that all 10 cars wouldn’t brake while driving past a policeman with his radar gun out would be 0.09%. If we factor in that everyone was driving 10-20 MPH faster than the allowed speed (which should increase their chances of wanting to slow down when seeing the policeman), then it would be even more unlikely that a policeman was there.
So when none of the 10 cars touched their brakes, I decided to let loose and enjoy my car. After all it is not often I can really let er rip on the highway, so I thought given I was 99.91% sure there were no more cops before my exit, I was safe to do so. I got it up from 60MPH to 85 MPH in no time at all and just as I did, I looked to my left and there was a cop and he had his radar gun pointed right at me. He was in his usual hiding spot which meant all 10 cars drove past a cop while speeding between 10-20MPH and didn’t even tap their brakes. Before he even turned on his lights I had immediately pulled over and was already parked on the side of the road! There was no question who he was coming for so I didn’t wait for him to tail me and put his lights on. There was no need to go through that song and dance.
Usually when a cop is pulling me over my thought is something like, “FML.” But this time all I could think about was how much of a sick beat it was that he was even there! Part of me was simply stunned that such a human behavioral anomaly could occur right before my eyes (and my wallet). When he pulled me over he asked why I was speeding and I kind of laughed and said that, “I saw 10 cars in front of me all speeding and no one even touched their brakes so I didn’t think you were there!” He kind of chuckled and told me he was only looking for people who were going over 70 MPH and then thanked me for pulling over so quickly. He cited me and I was on my way.
I will have to say that while I got caught today, if a similar situation arises, I wouldn’t do anything differently. If I do some quick poker thinking and determine that I have 99.91% equity that I won’t get pulled over, I will take that equity and enjoy that ride!
Did I learn a lesson today? No. Not at all. I took a sick beat is the way I look at it. What can I say? I guess I am a slave to EV. I certainly can’t claim that I live a perfectly +EV life and every decision I make is + EV, but I certainly aim to do my best for the most part. It has served me well over the years, but we are all going to take a bad beat from time to time……
