And if it is someday, I might go find something else to do with my life.
I think there is a very real chance that we are experiencing what we could look back on and say is the hardest period to make money as an online poker professional. The nosebleed games are pretty much dry save for a bunch of guys in relatively neutral EV situations passing money around to each other. The high stakes action is pretty much dead. The 25/50 and 10/20nl games barely ever run unless a bunch of regs want to bash heads, which again, is not producing any income for anyone other than the poker rooms. Sure, occasionally a spot sits at the table, but it is usuallly a 40BB weaker player which is hardly going to pay the bills for anyone.
The United States continues to try as hard as possible to be complete idiots about poker when it comes to the laws here. I will have to admit, I once again wrote a not insignificant check to the government a few days ago which is starting to tilt me to no end. Let’s forget I live in the United States and say I came across a stranger and he asked me about taxes in the country I lived in. I would probably say something like this:
Me: Well, I live in a country where I risk significant sums of money each day and work very long days. When I am through with my long day of risking incredible amounts of money, my government tells me that I need to give them about half of what I have made.
Stranger: WOW. That country must do many great things if they are demanding from you that kind of money.
Me: No not really. They don’t care if people live or die here. They don’t regulate the food so they let companies serve poison to our citizens. If they get sick from the poison, er I mean food, then they tell them they better have a really good job to get treatment or otherwise they will just have to suffer and eventually die.
Stranger: So where does the money go to?
Me: Mostly to just blow shit up all over the world and wreak havoc wherever possible
Stranger: Surely it must go to other things
Me: Yeah it does. The government likes to try and run things into the ground and it takes a lot of money to do that. You can’t waste money if you don’t take a lot in.
Stranger: At least you can work hard and still have a good life right? They surely must be appreciative of you working hard and giving them so much of your money
Me: Not at all. In fact they work hard to make sure I am not allowed to work. They pass laws in the middle of the night to try and make sure I can’t make a living at what I enjoy most.
Stranger: Man I would be pretty upset if I were you. What would happen if you just told them you’re not going to pay them your money? That seems fair given they are wasting your money and trying to tear down what you do for a living. I mean, surely they can’t simultaneously expect you to give them money to fund their efforts to try and tear you down.
Me: No. Can’t do that. They will send people armed with guns to my house and throw me in a cage for a long time if I don’t pay up.
Stranger: Jesus Christ! What 3rd world country do you live in?
Me: The United States of America.
OK back from that little rant. The legality of poker is not helping the situation either. It is possible poker could be a heck of a lot better right now if it just became legal. But with poker being a gray area sort of activity at the moment (it’s not legal or illegal really), the games suffer. If this changes some day, we could be in for a fun ride as poker players.
I guess what I am most concerned about is the proliferation of so many professional players. I think there are actually far more casual players dropping by the mid to high stakes games these days, but the number of pros has increased at a rate 10 times (or more) as fast. So imagine you have a family of 4 and you have a regular sized pie. This allows everyone to have a nice slice for dessert. But imagine if you had an extra large pie instead, but now it had to feed every family on the block. So the pie has grown, but it is being divided too many ways at the moment.
I think there is going to be a “come the Jesus” moment for a lot of the pros here in the next 12 months. I think there are going to be a lot of pros who play and play and play and realize that they aren’t making any money. You can only sit with a bunch of regs and pass along money for so long (and pay rake for the privilege) before everyone winds up broke. I think we are going to see hundreds of poker players go off and pursue a different career. The market needs to make an adjustment and I think the adjustment is going to come in the form of an enormous number of people who pursue other interests. I just don’t see poker being a way for many people to make deep into the 6 figures (and some into the 7 figures) the way many did up until 09’. If I am wrong and it doesn’t adjust, then I suspect we are in for a long time of much leaner paychecks as poker professionals.
Poker is hard right now. It is very hard. At one point I could make a million dollars a year at poker without doing anything more than grinding 5/10nl for about 40 hours a week. In fact I once posted a half a million hand graph of just 5/10nl hands where I made over a $1 a hand playing an insane number of tables at one time. That will NEVER happen again unless maybe if poker is fully legal here in the US. It just isn’t possible any more. I think 50 cents a hand is like the new $1 a hand for multi tabling pros. If you can make 50 cents a hand online over a very large sample playing many tables at 5/10nl, you are a super star these days. No limit win rates are looking a lot more like limit holdem win rates these days.
I will be the first to admit, it is brutal out there right now. Granted, I am running horribly bad this year and am down about 100 buy ins below EV on the year, but I am still up around $150,000 including VPP bonuses. If I ran half decently and played a bunch, this would be just a nice month for me back in 07’ and 08’. And the sick thing is that Tableratings has me as one of the top 4 winners at my limit. So I know that I am doing better than most still, which is even more depressing. If there were 100 guys in front of me, I would know I just need to work harder and start running better. But I am still one of the bigger winners which is what is really making me worried.
I actually just came across an old word document that I made in 07’ where I had detailed notes on all 30, that’s right 30, of the regulars I played against at 5/10 and up. There were some more semi regs of course, but these days I am sure there must be at least 500 or more playing in the games I am at now. It’s totally nuts. In fact I am going to get serious about using a HUD again with tons of stats on the screen because I have a terrible idea about each player’s tendencies now. There are just too many. People used to ask me why I don’t use a HUD and I would say because there is I play so much with the regulars at the tables that there is nothing a HUD can tell me that I don’t already know about them. Those days are long gone and I need to use a HUD for sure now to keep track of them all.
The good news is that I don’t think it is going to get much worse. I just don’t see all of these pros, many of whom are highly intelligent people who could get excellent jobs doing something else, wanting to play poker for little money. I think there will be a re sorting period in the poker economy where you will see only the strongest survive and the rest will go off and do something else with their lives. Then the pie won’t be chopped up so many ways and we can all do a little better.
I hate for an aspiring professional to read this and become disheartened. I suppose if you are aspiring to be a professional and have dreams of making millions and living the baller lifestyle, then yes you should be very disheartened. But if you are someone who simply wants to work hard at their game and replace their presumably somewhat average income through playing poker rather than working for your dick head boss, then there is no better time to be getting into poker. As hard as poker has become to make life changing sums of money, it is a great time to grind a lot of hands and make around 6 figures a year.
Poker Stars has a wonderful program where you can pretty much break even at the tables and get around $100K + a year in cash bonuses through their rewards program. So if you are someone who makes $35,000 a year at a job you hate, if you can work hard at poker and be able to break even at small stakes no limit, you can make about $100,000 a year through multi tabling low stakes games. Additionally, the legal landscape could change for the better and we could experience a new wave of players that add a tremendous amount of money to poker players’ bottom lines.
I know when I was working for a living at the terrible job I had before becoming a poker pro, that was only a dream to me. To think I am in a position now to be worried because my 7 figure years are behind me, is something I have to consistently remind myself is a life for which I should be tremendously grateful for.